Epic post. This feels like one that will end up in the Gitcoin canon!
A few reactions:
- $500M GMV is a good target but still a drop in the bucket relative to legacy PGF. It’s how much the country of Chad currently allocates to PGF. (Have fun with that meme btw)
- Vitalik often talks about convex vs concave outcomes. I think he brought it up in the latest greenpill podcast ep too. The unanswered question is whether complex yet largely concave allocation mechanisms like QF offer superior results than simply allocating a pool of money evenly across a set of projects (or using some other extremely simple heuristic).*
- If we can demonstrate that crypto PGF is (a) more cost efficient for ecosystem funders and projects, and (b) leads to better allocation outcomes, then I think we get to $500M very fast.
Let me also disclose that I have a horse in this race – and am betting that decentralized impact measurement is the linchpin! There’s a sweet spot we have yet to find between qualitative and quantitative allocation mechanisms.
(*) Edit: for further reading, checkout this experiment in Nigeria: “Random assignment of US$34 million in grants” or listen to the Planet Money episode about it