Hey all!
Happy to share the final revised results. Seriously thank you everyone for the help and your patience.
You can find them here:
These matching calculations included all methods discussed previously in prior iterations, along with a few new tactics. First, we used @umarkhaneth’s awesome visualization tool to spot suspect Sybil rings. We then manually investigated via Etherscan, Passport, Breadcrumbs, and other on-chain tools, and took action when necessary.
We also further leveraged many of the automated analysis tools ODC and others provided to see what would best catch likely Sybils without too many false positives. After a lot of backtesting and experimentation, two tests stood out. One was checking whether an address shared an initial seed funder with another address. The second was whether an address had recently interacted with other donors. Each test by itself would catch a high percentage of donors, but when combined (if a donor was flagged by both tests) then only 5-10% of donors were flagged, and when we compared the results to known Sybil rings, it caught a much higher proportion of Sybil donors.
We have also now updated the results sheet to include the accurate “total received USD” amounts, summed after Sybil squelching, so the numbers should all match up better with no big discrepancies.
Please take a look and let us know if you have any questions - we would like to accelerate the timeline to move to a snapshot vote soon so we can pay out matches ASAP, however will still leave a few days for comments and reviews. Thanks all!