What if Gitcoin Grants had been early stage investments?

Summary

From 2019–2022, Gitcoin provided ~$767K in early support to at least 20 projects that have since become foundational to the Ethereum ecosystem. These include category-defining DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Yearn, the core teams behind major L2s such as Arbitrum and Optimism, fast-growing pre-TGE protocols like Gelato and Sablier, and early communities that evolved into funds like Bankless and MetaCartel.

If we treat Gitcoin’s matching grants as if they were seed-stage checks at standard early-stage valuation comps, then Gitcoin’s hypothetical equity/token positions would be worth ~$20M today. Much of this portfolio would be liquid.

This analysis is a napkin-math counterfactual exercise. It is NOT a claim that Gitcoin should have taken equity. However, it illustrates Gitcoin’s ability to surface high-potential founders before broader market recognition.

Limitations

This model simplifies reality in several ways. It assumes:

  • Gitcoin’s grant recipients map directly to later token or equity value creation.
  • $5–10M post-money valuations for all early rounds to standardize across inconsistent or unavailable historical data.
  • No dilution after the seed stage.
  • A 50/50 insider/community token split for TGEs.

These assumptions are intentionally conservative and designed to highlight directional signal rather than precise financial outcomes.

Portfolio Reconstruction

Below is the shortlist of Gitcoin-funded projects that received Gitcoin Grants before their first institutional round or TGE. Total Gitcoin matching across these projects is $766,937.

Early-Stage Projects Funded by Gitcoin Prior to TGE / VC

Project Matching Funds Total Rounds First GG Round Last GG Round Milestone Date
Prysmatic Labs (Arbitrum) $159,780 14 2019-02-28 2022-06-01 Acquired -> TGE 2022-10-22
Wallet Connect $35,318 7 2019-04-20 2021-04-05 TGE 2024-09-17
Giveth $20,445 5 2020-10-09 2022-06-01 TGE 2021-12-24
1inch Exchange $13,283 3 2020-02-01 2020-07-16 TGE 2020-12-24
Tornado Cash $12,277 4 2020-04-24 2021-09-03 TGE 2020-12-18
Yearn Finance $11,528 3 2020-04-24 2020-10-08 TGE 2020-07-22
Uniswap $9,752 4 2019-02-28 2020-02-01 TGE 2020-09-01
Mask Network $8,621 1 2020-12-22 2020-12-22 TGE 2021-02-11
Plasma (Optimism) $8,303 3 2019-02-28 2019-10-30 TGE 2022-06-01
POAP $141,690 8 2020-04-24 2021-11-18 VC Investment 2022-01-18
Bankless $99,479 6 2020-02-03 2021-04-05 Launched Fund 2023-04-28
Fileverse $90,000 2 2022-03-07 2022-06-04 VC Investment 2023-10-17
Snapshot $73,431 5 2020-10-12 2021-09-03 VC Investment 2021-11-19
LIFI (Bridge) $34,672 1 2021-09-03 2021-09-03 VC Investment 2022-07-11
Redstone $30,470 2 2022-06-01 2022-08-24 VC Investment 2022-08-30
Sablier $8,020 1 2020-02-02 2020-02-02 VC Investment 2024-03-22
MetaCartel $7,505 3 2020-02-03 2020-07-16 Raised Fund 2020-03-31
Gelato $2,364 5 2020-02-03 2020-10-10 VC Investment 2020-09-15

Token Based Valuation Model

For projects that have launched tokens, we model Gitcoin’s hypothetical stake using:

  • A standardized $10M post-money valuation for L2s and DeFi.
  • A standardized $5M post-money valuation for other projects.
  • Gitcoin’s “share” = matching funds / assumed post-money valuation.
  • Gitcoin’s token exposure comes from the insider allocation (50% insider / 50% community).
  • Market caps from CoinGecko as of November 7, 2025.

For projects with liquid tokens, we can model the estimated value of Gitcoin’s shares had its matching grants been an investment at standard early stage valuation comps. For this analysis, we simply assume that Layer 2s and Defi protocols have a post-money valuation of $10M and other projects $5M. We also assume a standard 50/50 split between insiders / community for the TGE. The current market cap for each token was sourced from CoinGecko on November 7, 2025.

Project Ticker Matching Funds Est. Valuation Gitcoin Share Token Allocation for Community Current Market Cap Est. Value of Gitcoin’s Shares
Uniswap $UNI $9,752 $10,000,000 0.10% 50% $3,755,616,324 $1,831,158
Prysmatic Labs (Arbitrum) $ARB $159,780 $10,000,000 1.60% 50% $1,673,851,762 $13,372,383
Plasma (Optimism) $OP $8,303 $10,000,000 0.08% 50% $823,595,203 $341,907
Wallet Connect $WCT $35,318 $5,000,000 0.71% 50% $23,396,939 $82,632
1inch Exchange $1INCH $13,283 $10,000,000 0.13% 50% $303,589,624 $201,636
Tornado Cash $TORN $12,277 $5,000,000 0.25% 50% $61,403,137 $75,382
Yearn Finance $YFI $11,528 $10,000,000 0.12% 50% $176,279,692 $101,608
Giveth $GIV $20,445 $5,000,000 0.41% 50% $669,553 $1,369
Mask Network $MASK $8,621 $10,000,000 0.09% 50% $86,971,795 $37,491
TOTAL $279,306 $75,000,000 0.37% 50% $6,905,374,029 $16,045,565

Private Market Valuation Model

For projects that remain private or have not launched tokens, we map Gitcoin’s matching grants to hypothetical equity at standard seed valuations ($5-10M), then revalue at the first institutional round assuming the round size equals 15% of the post-money valuation.

Project Matching Funds Est. Post Money Valuation Gitcoin Share First VC Round Round Size Est. Post Money Valuation Est. Value of Gitcoin Shares
POAP $141,690 $5,000,000 2.83% Seed $10,000,000 $66,666,667 $1,889,197
Fileverse $90,000 $5,000,000 1.80% Pre-Seed $1,500,000 $10,000,000 $180,000
Snapshot $73,431 $5,000,000 1.47% Seed $4,000,000 $26,666,667 $391,631
LIFI (Bridge) $34,672 $10,000,000 0.35% Seed $5,500,000 $36,666,667 $127,131
Redstone $30,470 $10,000,000 0.30% Seed $7,000,000 $46,666,667 $142,193
Sablier $8,020 $10,000,000 0.08% Seed $4,500,000 $30,000,000 $24,060
Gelato $2,364 $5,000,000 0.05% Seed $1,200,000 $8,000,000 $3,783
TOTAL $380,647 $50,000,000 0.76% $33,700,000 $224,666,667 $2,757,995

Community-to-Fund Pipeline

Two early communities evolved into venture allocators with measurable AUM. Treating Gitcoin’s matching as seed-stage exposure to their future funds:

Project Matching Funds AUM Share
Bankless $99,479 $35,000,000 0.28%
MetaCartel $7,505 $5,000,000 0.15%
TOTAL $106,984 $40,000,000 0.27%

Conclusion

Once again, this analysis does NOT argue that Gitcoin grants and investments are interchangeable, or that teams would have preferred dilutive capital over Gitcoin’s support.

However, it does shine light on Gitcoin’s ability to identify early alpha. Had Gitcoin’s early support been structured like traditional seed capital, its hypothetical portfolio would be worth at least $20M today.

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This analysis highlights something the ecosystem often overlooks: Gitcoin has consistently demonstrated one of the strongest early-stage discovery signals in Web3. Long before institutional capital recognized these teams, Gitcoin’s community identified and supported builders who later became foundational to the Ethereum stack.

The point is not that grants should have been equity. Rather, it’s that community-driven funding has repeatedly outperformed traditional venture pipelines in identifying talent, infrastructure, and emergent public goods. Even under conservative assumptions, the hypothetical portfolio illustrates how powerful Gitcoin’s early signal actually is.

More importantly, it shows a path forward. As the ecosystem evolves, hybrid funding mechanisms — retroactive public goods funding, hypercerts, impact markets, and other regenerative models — can preserve the non-dilutive ethos while creating sustainable value loops for public-goods treasuries.

In short: Gitcoin didn’t just fund projects — it funded the foundations of the ecosystem. The data reinforces the long-term strategic importance of decentralized grant systems for innovation velocity in Web3. :slightly_smiling_face:

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