Here is some data that can inform this discussion.
How match estimates changed over time during GR10, by round.
https://gitcoin.co/grants/stats
Also click to the ‘Stats’ tab of any grant you own to see some data about how your grant has performed on a few KPIs.
Disclaimer: This post is for informative purposes only and is not financial advice. This post reflects my personal views, not a decision or commitment by Gitcoin governance. Forward-looking items in it are targets, not commitments. The information in these posts is subject to change as we continue learning. This post may contain estimates, may contain errors, and is provided on a best-effort basis. DYOR, do not make any financial decisions based on these posts.