Data Science @ GitcoinDAO

[Fred]

Late reply here, but we’ve been hard at work getting data from off-chain CEXs added to the dashboard. This has proven to be harder than we anticipated, however we are now able to track sales from contributor addresses across all of the major CEXs which has been a big milestone.

@myceliumcoordinator

The inverse is also true! This analysis does not show that selling tokens to market DOES not create downward price.

@myceliumcoordinator

How can you draw that conclusion from that graph? You just showed a bunch of data that has a bunch of outflows and a large decline in price. There’s no rigor to this analysis method. There’s no control group, nor is there any analysis of the liquidity of the market in this analysis.

I think you misunderstood my previous post; we could not find a correlation with our current data and methodology. Not being able to prove a hypothesis does not necessarily mean that the opposite is true.

Circling back to sell pressure from contributors;
We’ve recently added a graph over relative GTC price vs daily total contributor sales (DEX+CEX).
(A correlation analysis has not yet been initiatied at this point):

Even though we are now able to track contributor sales on CEXs we’ve yet to find a way to get accurate total CEX volume into the dashboard. Until we have this data available natively in Dune I’ve grabbed the daily volume (CEX+DEX) from Coinmarketcap and Coingecko and plotted this graph:

The volume has stayed between 1M - 10M GTC per day for the majority of GTC’s history.
Median GTC volume according to Coinmarketcap = 2.7M GTC/day.
Median GTC volume according to Coingecko = 2M GTC/day.

This is the graph of total GTC sales from contributors on DEX & CEX:

Even on days of relatively large GTC sales from contributors, 10k GTC/day, contributor sell pressure is still less than half a percent of the median daily volume.

(10k GTC/day is roughly equivalent to the 90-95th percentile. A normal distribution graph of contributor sell pressure is in the works. This will allow you to grab any percentile of contributor sell pressure and compare that to the total daily volume.)

@myceliumcoordinator

GTC is down 50% vs ETH over the last 30 days, so I dont think you can say the outflows are in line with the rest of the market decline.

I think you’ve misunderstood the governance token part of the dashboard as well. We are comparing GTC to other governance tokens, which are all down vs ETH.

For convenience we’ve now grouped together other governance tokens into a basket on the graph. Although we haven’t initiated a proper correlation analysis to define the strength of the association, a correlation is clear:

@myceliumcoordinator

I think doing an analysis about this could be important, but more rigor is needed to be able to form conclusions backed by data in my opinion.

As stated earlier, the dashboard will receive continuous updates as we are able to track more data. I’d be happy to continue the conversation and discuss things further if you are interested in helping out!

(Please note that Dune is performing internal upgrades at the moment and some graphs will not load properly until this work has been completed. The dashboard may also be slower to load)