Gitcoin Treasury Runway Analysis

[myceliumcoordinator]

@Stastny

The hope is that this analysis portrays, at a high level, what type of runway the DAO could expect under various spend, diversification, and GTC price scenarios.

In my opinion, this analysis doesnt do any good to predict the DAO runway.

The DAO has no idea if $1.2m/mo in spend is going to cause the token to drop 99% or 0%. How can anyone who is working at the DAO or holding the token have any confidence in the DAOs runway?

Core token dynamics like the ongoing work-stream’s spend effect on token price need to be taken into account to have any confidence in this project’s runway. Or to take course-correcting action if the outlook is grim.

@Stastny

There will definitely be sell-pressure as a result of GTC-denominated spend but, in our opinion, any attempt to quantify the magnitude of that effect on average future GTC price would probably fall into “false precision” territory given inconsistent trading volumes and especially given the prices shown in our sensitivity tables are assumed to be a weighted-average over the remaining life of the protocol.

Why not do an analysis using publicly available information and under different confidence intervals? If inconsistent trading volumes are a problem you can use longer time periods or make an informed guess.

eg. you could come back saying

assuming liquidity remains as A and spend remains at B, we can say with C% confidence that D.