Data Analysis for Season 14 Budget Proposals

[DisruptionJoe]

@kyle

Here are some numbers I pulled together, with links to my source sheets. I would love to see your source sheets so we can be more transparent about how we generate these charts.

I shared my source sheet with you, but here it is again: S13 & 14 compare - Google Sheets

As I look at your source sheet, your explanation seems to be using the price at time of transfer and not the requested amounts or the budget the workstreams set for themselves. If they didn’t use USD at all, it should be reasonable to assume the same USD price for all requests if they were made within a few days of each other.

Here is your source data which specifically shows “at the time of transfer”. The price of GTC went from around $9.40 which was used on the FDD budget request to around $6 when the S13 budgets were finally transferred in late March.

By using the "at the time of transfer rule, it would make the original requests for workstreams which requested in GTC (but some of which planned and made commitments in USD) seem smaller than they actually were.

Additionally, it would make the FDD budget seem larger because we specifically used a provision reading “The GTC total will be adjusted based on the current market value at the time this proposal is moved to Snapshot and to Tally. The vote will be to send $879,590 in GTC at the current price when moved to Tally or the 20 day moving average (whichever is lower).”

Now your arguments here gloss over that point and try to make it seem as though the “time of transfer” (which was mid march) is the valid way to view the workstream budgets for season 13 rather than the amount requested when the budget was written.

@kyle

FDD is a wild anomaly when comparing across seasons. It was the only workstream to have reserves approved in S13, and now looks like it is requesting much less in S14 simply because 1) it has reserves from S13 and 2) other workstreams are now playing catchup and requesting reserves for the first time.

Not sure why this matters when we also show how much we are requesting. Maybe you can share more on what more you want to see than the actual information about the amount being requested alongside the actual amount the workstream plans to use in the upcoming season.

The story I think this tells is that:

1. Yes, FDD was an anomoly
2. The other workstreams are catching up on a first season with reserves
3. Some of the other workstreams had reserves before, but weren’t explicit about requesting them
4. Leadership in CSDO is doing a good job of getting the workstreams to opt into a cadence and model that is easier for stewards to gain usable insights from.
5. Some of FDD’s ideas like having reserves and accounting for volitility by requesting the GTC amount based on when the proposal moves to Tally were pretty good ideas considering every other workstream is doing this now.

@kyle

I am really pretty saddened by this analysis and it makes me questions how else FDD has been counting and analyzing things.

I’m saddened by the way you framed this criticism. It is unreasonable.

@kyle

There is no consideration for price at transfer (we have the Tx’s we can look at)

Again, this has nothing to do with what the workstreams actually budgeted for their needs going into season 13 as the transfer didn’t happen until mid-late March.

Am I not understanding something here?

@kyle

those with reserves and those without or the duration of budgetary timeline (PGF, Dao Ops having one extra month of operation spend against their S13 budgets).

Actually, there was this consideration. The FDD season 13 numbers used the exact $ amounts which were explicitly accounting for, AND ASKING FOR, our reserves. The fact that other workstreams happened to have reserves available from their Season 13 budget request that they didn’t explicitly ask for does not mean that they had a smaller budget than was asked for because they needed to make it stretch. It could also mean they weren’t explicit about what exactly they were asking for.

@kyle

Here is a quick graph showing how different things things actually look if we normalized for a few of the things I called out (to the best of my layman’s ability). Interestingly, most of the workstreams all have a very similar request amount with the exception of PGF.

It seems as though you are considering what I call the “requested” amount to mean the amount they are asking for for their S14 budget. This is a definition issue.

I considered a “Season budget” to be what they say they need to execute in the season. I consider a “requested amount” to be the amount they are asking to extract from the treasury with the current budget proposal.

Did you see this differently? Are we talking past each other?

@kyle

We can see that the reserves for FDD put it far above everyone else, but this was something we have normalized for S14. But without normalizing and excluding reserves, it paints a very different picture on where funding is going (in an unfair way).

This is incorrect. The reserves were not the reason for FDD showing up this way. It is because of our clause to pay out the budget request using “The GTC total will be adjusted based on the current market value at the time this proposal is moved to Snapshot and to Tally. The vote will be to send $879,590 in GTC at the current price when moved to Tally or the 20 day moving average (whichever is lower).”

Now, I would consider using the price at the time of transfer as a way to determine what the workstream’s season 14 budget requests are, but I have no time machine.

i am gong to assume that the workstreams do have an exact $ value they are budgeting for considering most of them use USD in their breakdowns.

The data I used was from their S13 & S14 budget proposals normalized for the same GTC prices as said above.

@kyle

Yes, this graph you have provided is definitely painted in an unfair way. Thanks for noticing.

FDD did not request twice the reserve amount as what they requested for the season budget. Here is the link to the S13 FDD proposal [Proposal] FDD Workstream Season 13 Budget Request

And here is what it requested:

So basically neither of your FDD numbers are accurate, but there is proof that my argument about the price moving from $9.40 at time of proposal posting to $6 at time of transfer is true.

MC requested 130k GTC and PGF requested 100k GTC but you show $775k & 700k respectively. This looks approximately right considering the prices moved from $9.40 at the time of budget requests being posted to around $6 at time of transfer.

@kyle

Now, the S14 requests are a big increase for most workstreams as they are requesting reserves for the first time.

Again, this is not because the workstreams are requesting larger amounts. It is because you are using the price at time of transfer, which I will assume the workstreams didn’t use in forming their budget requests.

@kyle

S14 is a pretty huge increase to the DAO treasury, but this is to be expected now that every workstream is asking for a 60 day reserve to be baked in.

The requested amount is higher than the S14 cumulative budget to account for reserves, but the ask is approximately the same.